The hype started in 1959 when Nobel laureate Richard Feynman offered US$1,000 to the first person to "make a working electronic motor no bigger than 1/64th of an inch". Suddenly small was big, and the idea grew until it became nanotechnology, loosely defined as construction on a scale up to 100 nanometres (1/10,000 of a millimetre). Since the 1980s, investment has been growing steadily, with the U.S. in the lead after Clinton and then Bush Jr. anticipated "the next industrial revolution". The winner of the nano race will experience enormous economic growth and some anticipate a US$1 trillion global market by 2015.
That's the good news. The bad news is that hype has spooked venture capitalists as objective analysis becomes clouded by fear of the unknown on one hand (fuelled in nano's case by the Michael Crichton book Prey) and breathless expectation on the other. One early hurdle was the threat of "grey goo", coined by Eric Drexler in his 1986 book Engines of Creation to describe a scenario where nanobots replicate out of control and "reduce the biosphere to dust". Ideal ammunition for Prince Charles and Greenpeace to go on the attack.
With stain-resistant pants and scratch-proof paint being the main commercial hits so far, investors are wary of another dotcom debacle. Meanwhile the Merrill Lynch Nanotech Index tracks the young industry's shaky trajectory. The gradient's pretty flat at the moment, but when the R&D breakthroughs start coming — super-strong lightweight materials, solar energy 100 times cheaper than today, methods to split water with sunlight to produce energy, improved drug delivery, super-fast computers, fresh drinking water for all — the world will be a better place and the floodgates of private investment will open.
Berube has funnelled all the major players' opinions into his book to compile an even-handed analysis of a very dynamic and misunderstood industry, and his skills as a communications lecturer come to the fore as he boils down the bold claims with a flame of objectivity. But will it all come to pass? We'll have to get back to you on that.
