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SYDNEY: Researchers in the UK have developed a model that reveals how social groups emerge and remain stable, which could help them understand everything from climate sceptic groups to soccer clubs.
"Traditionally networks have been studied as unchanging," said co-author John Bryden from the University of London, whose study was published in the Journal of Royal Society Interface. "But human networks are much more complex, and this study looked at the networks in the context of the ever-changing 'real world'.
"We have taken that a step further by looking at networks that are changing over time. Understanding why and how groups form in these changing networks could tell us much about how our society works."
A model for how we make friends
Using an algorithm derived from an individual-based model and a population-level model based on average behaviour, the researchers mathematically analysed human behaviour within a community context.
The researchers ran computer simulations to analyse how often we change our circles of friends, how we choose our friends and how social networks self-organise into smaller, more connected communities. From this, they were able to graph things such as opinion flow and social group formation against a consistent timescale.
When individuals were set up to make random connections with others, no smaller groups were formed, whereas when they were set up to only connect with those similar to themselves, networks would fracture and break up into unconnected cliques, the researchers report.
Forming a clique is never easy
"We found was that it was difficult for a new clique to get started," said Bryden. "We would introduce a new 'type' of person into the model, and watch to see if their interests spread to others … Many of these new 'types' didn't survive, but those that became established and formed cliques did tend to do very well."
The researchers hope the model will be used in the future to build a better understanding of why communities or cliques form, which could help future studies investigating how diseases and information spread through populations - even conspiracy theories.
"Key messages about the environment from groups of climate scientists - how are these not getting through to the climate sceptics? It's because disconnected homogenous networks are unlikely to change their ideas," said Sara Denize from the School of Marketing at the University of Western Sydney
How do clubs change but stay the same?
Future applications of this model will see researchers focussing on the dynamics of all kind of social groups, whether they be your family, church group or school, or more short-term groups, such as that ice-skating team you quit after just one season.
"You can see the emergence of patterns," said Denize. "The entity stays the same - so a football team or club will retain its identity - but new people will come and go every season. New members learn the functions of the club from the remaining members."
The model can also be applied to social networking sites such as Twitter and Facebook, to explain how certain groups form and become important and how ideas move between them, or to the scenario of a school playground where young children change friends on almost a daily basis.
How to predict the unpredictable?
Like any project based on human behaviour, it was a challenge to make the model as simple as possible, while still explaining how we form into groups.
"Predicting human behaviour is quite a challenge," said Bryden. "But there are some things that we do that are quite predictable: interacting, making friends and being part of groups to give some examples."
"Human behaviour is problematic," said Denize. "But what this research shows is that we can start to get a sense of how people behave at an aggregate level."
