Just ask grandpa. The 20th century was an amazing time to be alive. Telephones, airplanes, cars, the personal computer, the Internet, human exploration of space, and of course the harnessing of the atom, all these things were unthinkable in 1900, but by the year 2000 they were commonplace.
But, what will the future hold?
A panel was convened by the U.S. National Academy of Engineering (NAE) to make bold predictions about the "grand engineering challenges" of the 21st century. The findings were presented on Friday at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Boston, Massachusetts.
The group of experts ranged from Larry Page, co-founder of Google, and Craig Venter, geneticist and businessman, to Ray Kurzweil, futurist and inventor, and Bernadine Healy, former director of the U.S. National Institutes of Health. Together they were able group their hopes for the future of engineering into four broad themes: engineer a better environment, engineer better humans, engineer a safer world, and use engineering to learn more about ourselves and the universe.
"Some of these goals are simply imperative to our survival on this planet, some will make us more secure against both human and natural threats, and all will improve the quality of life in our nation and in our world," says Charles Vest, president of the NAE, which is based in Washington, DC.
Nanosolar revolution
One of the boldest predictions the experts have made focuses on new nanosolar arrays replacing old, industrial-style solar panels and fossil fuels. The nanotechnology allows semiconductors able to turn light into electricity to be printed onto flexible sheets in a process similar to newspaper printing. This reduces the amount of material and time needed to produce a panel, making it cheaper, easier to install and more efficient.
Kurzweil, who is author of the best-selling book The Age of Spiritual Machines, says that all our energy needs could be supplied by capturing just one part in 10,000 of sunlight that hits the Earth.
The race to harness the Sun's energy is key not only to moving away from carbon-emitting energy sources, but it is also predicted to be worth a couple of trillion dollars. But, how soon might this major power shift be accomplished?
"I'm confident that we aren't that far away from a tipping point where solar energy is competitive with fossil fuels. [We're] probably within five years of that tipping point," says Kurzweil. "Also we see an exponential progression in the use of solar energy. It's doubling every two years, which means multiplying by a thousand in 20 years, and at that rate we'll meet all our demands for energy from solar in 20 years."
Exponential advances
It might sound hard to believe that in just twenty years we could get all our energy from solar panels, but that bold prediction is in line with Kurzweil's theory that information technology grows exponentially not linearly (think Moore's law). He cites the development of the Internet and our ability to sequence the human genome as examples that show how rapidly information technology grows.
"It took five yeas to sequence just one per cent of the human genome," says Kurzweil, "but if you double one per cent seven more times you get 100 per cent. The amount of genetic material we sequence has doubled every year, so health and medicine has now become an information technology, which means it will be 1,000 times more capable in 10 years and a million times more capable in 20 years."
With that kind of predicted growth, medicine could rapidly become smart enough to defeat some of today's major killers, such as cancer, HIV, and the ever-present fear of a worldwide pandemic. As well, faster genome sequencing devices will give doctors the ability to prescribe the perfect medicine for your genetic code or to fight the exact virus making you sick.
Reverse engineering the brain
Another major engineering project involves reverse-engineering the human brain. In essence, that means using computer hardware and software to model the human brain's intricate neural pathways as precisely as possible. The payoff for an accurate simulation or model of the human brain is incredible: faster, more intuitive computers that can be seamlessly integrated with humans, as well as a deeper understanding and new treatments for neurological diseases.
In coming years we will also see computers revolutionising the way we learn, says William Perry, a professor at Stanford University in California, and chair of the committee that produced the report.
"In the last three decades, we've heard a lot about how computers could improve education, but they've not met their promise," says Perry. But now we see near-term applications for education such as large-scale access to information.
For instance, he says, "Google is working to digitise major worldwide libraries, so that much of the scientific literature and history of the world will be available at the touch of a finger. Plus, the development of personalised teaching or tutoring computers is not far away."
Virtual reality integrated into our lives is another IT-related advance the report's authors predict will soon come of age. In fact, if the technology improves to the point the NAE report suggests, long distance travel for business meeting might become a thing of the past. Why spend 24 hours on a jet when you can get there virtually in the blink of an eye?
Private spaceflight?
However, some commentators said the NAE report had one glaring omission: private spaceflight. According to Michael Belfiore, author of The Rocketeers: How a Visionary Band of Business Leaders, Engineers, and Pilots is Boldly Privatizing Space, private spaceflight should be on the list as one of the grandest engineering challenges of the 21st century.
"Government-controlled access to space has always been too costly for industrial, academic and even government researchers to take advantage of," says Belfiore, who is based in Woodstock, New York. "The emergence of private space programs in recent years points to a real solution to this problem."
Belfiore adds that "routine affordable access to space is within our grasp", and in fact it could help solve several of the 14 goals suggested in the report.
Over the coming weeks and months, members of the public are encouraged to check out the report's website: www.engineeringchallenges.org, to rate the goals – from deriving energy from nuclear fusion to enhancing virtual reality – in order of importance, in a sort of scientific popularity contest.
Graeme Stemp-Morlock is a science writer based in Toronto, Canada.
Terra Preta Soils Technology to Master the Carbon Cycle
Dear Editor,
The technologies high lighted, particularly Nano Solar,I am in total agreement with.
Let me add one more:
Incase you wish to do a follow up story here are the current news and links on Terra Preta (TP) soils and closed-loop pyrolysis of Biomass, this integrated virtuous cycle could sequester 100s of Billions of tons of carbon to the soils.
This technology represents the most comprehensive, low cost, and productive approach to long term stewardship and sustainability.Terra Preta Soils a process for Carbon Negative Bio fuels, massive Carbon sequestration, 1/3 Lower CH4 & N2O soil emissions, and 3X Fertility Too.
UN Climate Change Conference: Biochar present at the Bali Conference
http://terrapreta.bioenergylists.org/steinerbalinov2107
SCIAM Article May 15 07;
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=5670236C-E7F2-99DF-3E2163B9FB144E40
After many years of reviewing solutions to anthropogenic global warming (AGW) I believe this technology can manage Carbon for the greatest collective benefit at the lowest economic price, on vast scales. It just needs to be seen by ethical globally minded companies.
Could you please consider looking for a champion for this orphaned Terra Preta Carbon Soil Technology.
The main hurtle now is to change the current perspective held by the IPCC that the soil carbon cycle is a wash, to one in which soil can be used as a massive and ubiquitous Carbon sink via Charcoal. Below are the first concrete steps in that direction;
S.1884 – The Salazar Harvesting Energy Act of 2007
A Summary of Biochar Provisions in S.1884:
Carbon-Negative Biomass Energy and Soil Quality Initiative
for the 2007 Farm Bill
http://www.biochar-international.org/newinformationevents/newlegislation.html
Tackling Climate Change in the U.S.
Potential Carbon Emissions Reductions from Biomass by 2030by Ralph P. Overend, Ph.D. and Anelia Milbrandt
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
http://www.ases.org/climatechange/toc/07_biomass.pdf
The organization 25x25 (see 25x'25 - Home) released it's (first-ever, 55-page )"Action Plan" ; see; http://www.25x25.org/storage/25x25/documents/IP%20Documents/ActionPlanFinalWEB_04-19-07.pdf
On page 29 , as one of four foci for recommended RD&D, the plan lists: "The development of biochar, animal agriculture residues and other non-fossil fuel based fertilizers, toward the end of integrating energy production with enhanced soil quality and carbon sequestration."
and on p 32, recommended as part of an expanded database aspect of infrastructure: "Information on the application of carbon as fertilizer and existing carbon credit trading systems."
I feel 25x25 is now the premier US advocacy organization for all forms of renewable energy, but way out in front on biomass topics.
There are 24 billion tons of carbon controlled by man in his agriculture and waste stream, all that farm & cellulose waste which is now dumped to rot or digested or combusted and ultimately returned to the atmosphere as GHG should be returned to the Soil.
Even with all the big corporations coming to the GHG negotiation table, like Exxon, Alcoa, .etc, we still need to keep watch as they try to influence how carbon management is legislated in the USA. Carbon must have a fair price, that fair price and the changes in the view of how the soil carbon cycle now can be used as a massive sink verses it now being viewed as a wash, will be of particular value to farmers and a global cool breath of fresh air for us all.
If you have any other questions please feel free to call me or visit the TP web site I've been drafted to co-administer. http://terrapreta.bioenergylists.org/?q=node
It has been immensely gratifying to see all the major players join the mail list , Cornell folks, T. Beer of Kings Ford Charcoal (Clorox), Novozyne the M-Roots guys(fungus), chemical engineers, Dr. Danny Day of EPRIDA , Dr. Antal of U. of H., Virginia Tech folks and probably many others who's back round I don't know have joined.
Also Here is the Latest BIG Terra Preta Soil news;
The Honolulu Advertiser: "The nation's leading manufacturer of charcoal has licensed a University of Hawai'i process for turning green waste into barbecue briquets."
See: http://terrapreta.bioenergylists.org/antalkingsford
ConocoPhillips Establishes $22.5 Million Pyrolysis Program at Iowa State
http://www.conocophillips.com/newsroom/news_releases/2007news/04-10-2007.htm
Glomalin, the recently discovered soil protien, may be the secret to to TP soils productivity;
http://www.ars.usda.gov/is/pr/2003/030205.htm
Here is my current Terra Preta posting which condenses the most important stories and links;
Terra Preta Soils Technology To Master the Carbon Cycle
Man has been controlling the carbon cycle , and there for the weather, since the invention of agriculture, all be it was as unintentional, as our current airliner contrails are in affecting global dimming. This unintentional warm stability in climate has over 10,000 years, allowed us to develop to the point that now we know what we did,............ and that now......... we are over doing it.
The prehistoric and historic records gives a logical thrust for soil carbon sequestration.
I wonder what the soil biome carbon concentration was REALLY like before the cutting and burning of the world's forest, my guess is that now we see a severely diminished community, and that only very recent Ag practices like no-till and reforestation have started to help rebuild it. It makes implementing Terra Preta soil technology like an act of penitence, a returning of the misplaced carbon to where it belongs.
On the Scale of CO2 remediation:
It is my understanding that atmospheric CO2 stands at 379 PPM, to stabilize the climate we need to reduce it to 350 PPM by the removal of 230 Billion tons of carbon.
The best estimates I've found are that the total loss of forest and soil carbon (combined
pre-industrial and industrial) has been about 200-240 billion tons. Of
that, the soils are estimated to account for about 1/3, and the vegetation
the other 2/3.
Since man controls 24 billion tons in his agriculture then it seems we have plenty to work with in sequestering our fossil fuel CO2 emissions as stable charcoal in the soil.
As Dr. Lehmann at Cornell points out, "Closed-Loop Pyrolysis systems such as Dr. Danny Day's are the only way to make a fuel that is actually carbon negative". and that " a strategy combining biochar with biofuels could ultimately offset 9.5 billion tons of carbon per year-an amount equal to the total current fossil fuel emissions! "
Terra Preta Soils Carbon Negative Bio fuels, massive Carbon sequestration, 1/3 Lower CH4 & N2O soil emissions, and 3X FertilityToo
This some what orphaned new soil technology speaks to so many different interests and disciplines that it has not been embraced fully by any. I'm sure you will see both the potential of this system and the convergence needed for it's implementation.
The integrated energy strategy offered by Charcoal based Terra Preta Soil technology may
provide the only path to sustain our agricultural and fossil fueled power
structure without climate degradation, other than nuclear power.
The economics look good, and truly great if we had CO2 cap & trade or a Carbon tax in place.
.Nature article, Aug 06: Putting the carbon back Black is the new green:
http://bestenergies.com/downloads/naturemag_200604.pdf
Here's the Cornell page for an over view:
http://www.css.cornell.edu/faculty/lehmann/biochar/Biochar_home.htm
University of Beyreuth TP Program, Germany http://terrapreta.bioenergylists.org/?q=taxonomy/term/118
This Earth Science Forum thread on these soils contains further links, and has been viewed by 19,000 self-selected folks. ( I post everything I find on Amazon Dark Soils, ADS here):
http://forums.hypography.com/earth-science/3451-terra-preta.html
There is an ecology going on in these soils that is not completely understood, and if replicated and applied at scale would have multiple benefits for farmers and environmentalist.
Terra Preta creates a terrestrial carbon reef at a microscopic level. These nanoscale structures provide safe haven to the microbes and fungus that facilitate fertile soil creation, while sequestering carbon for many hundred if not thousands of years. The combination of these two forms of sequestration would also increase the growth rate and natural sequestration effort of growing plants.
The reason TP has elicited such interest on the Agricultural/horticultural side of it's benefits is this one static:
One gram of charcoal cooked to 650 C Has a surface area of 400 m2 (for soil microbes & fungus to live on), now for conversion fun:
One ton of charcoal has a surface area of 400,000 Acres!! which is equal to 625 square miles!! Rockingham Co. VA. , where I live, is only 851 Sq. miles
Now at a middle of the road application rate of 2 lbs/sq ft (which equals 1000 sqft/ton) or 43 tons/acre yields 26,000 Sq miles of surface area per Acre. VA is 39,594 Sq miles.
What this suggest to me is a potential of sequestering virgin forest amounts of carbon just in the soil alone, without counting the forest on top.
To take just one fairly representative example, in the classic Rothampstead experiments in England where arable land was allowed to revert to deciduous temperate woodland, soil organic carbon increased 300-400% from around 20 t/ha to 60-80 t/ha (or about 20-40 tons per acre) in less than a century (Jenkinson & Rayner 1977). The rapidity with which organic carbon can build up in soils is also indicated by examples of buried steppe soils formed during short-lived interstadial phases in Russia and Ukraine. Even though such warm, relatively moist phases usually lasted only a few hundred years, and started out from the skeletal loess desert/semi-desert soils of glacial conditions (with which they are inter-leaved), these buried steppe soils have all the rich organic content of a present-day chernozem soil that has had many thousands of years to build up its carbon (E. Zelikson, Russian Academy of Sciences, pers. comm., May 1994). http://www.esd.ornl.gov/projects/qen/carbon1.html
All the Bio-Char Companies and equipment manufactures I've found:
Carbon Diversion
http://www.carbondiversion.com/
Eprida: Sustainable Solutions for Global Concerns
http://www.eprida.com/home/index.php4
BEST Pyrolysis, Inc. | Slow Pyrolysis - Biomass - Clean Energy - Renewable Ene
http://www.bestenergies.com/companies/bestpyrolysis.html
Dynamotive Energy Systems | The Evolution of Energy
http://www.dynamotive.com/
Ensyn - Environmentally Friendly Energy and Chemicals
http://www.ensyn.com/who/ensyn.htm
Agri-Therm, developing bio oils from agricultural waste
http://www.agri-therm.com/
Advanced BioRefinery Inc.
http://www.advbiorefineryinc.ca/
Technology Review: Turning Slash into Cash
http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/17298/
3R Environmental Technologies Ltd. (Edward Someus)
WEB: http://www.terrenum.net/
The company has Swedish origin and developing/designing medium and large scale carbonization units. The company is the licensor and technology provider to NviroClean Tech Ltd British American organization WEB: http://www.nvirocleantech.com and VERTUS Ltd.
http://www.vertustechnologies.com
Genesis Industries, licensee of Eprida technology, provides carbon-negative EPRIDA energy machines at the same cost as going direct to Eprida. Our technical support staff also provide information to obtain the best use of biochar produced by the machine. Recent research has shown that EPRIDA charcoal (biochar) increases plant productivity as it sequesters carbon in soil, thus reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide.
http://www.egenindustries.com/
If pre-Columbian Kayopo Indians could produce these soils up to 6 feet deep over 15% of the Amazon basin using "Slash & CHAR" verses "Slash & Burn", it seems that our energy and agricultural industries could also product them at scale.
Harnessing the work of this vast number of microbes and fungi changes the whole equation of energy return over energy input (EROEI) for food and Bio fuels. I see this as the only sustainable agricultural strategy if we no longer have cheap fossil fuels for fertilizer.
We need this super community of wee beasties to work in concert with us by populating them into their proper Soil horizon Carbon Condos.
Erich J. Knight
Shenandoah Gardens
1047 Dave Berry Rd.
McGaheysville, VA. 22840
(540) 289-9750
shengar@aol.com
Hold up on Terra Preta
Truly? Was it the IPCC that has caused so much foot dragging on the issue of carbon abatement by returning it to the soils through either Terra Preta or plant stones? I've been blaming government bureaucrats for not being abreast of the evidence. It may be time the IPCC be knocked from its current position of High Priest in what has become a Climate Change religion founded on Socialist Politics while the solution must lie in materials manipulation know-how of capitalist enterprise. The basic research having been done by South American Indians should appeal to some.