The Nile Delta in Egypt - one of three dozen deltas where people will find themselves wedged between flooding and rising sea levels.
Credit: NASA/GSFC/JPL, MISR Team
BRUSSELS: The world's top climate scientists are this week to predict dire consequences from global warming for developing nations and species diversity.
Even if dramatic measures are taken to reduce the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that drive warming, temperatures will still continue to climb for decades to come, they conclude.
The experts gathered in Brussels today to hammer out the summary to a massive climate impact dossier compiled to help governments make policy choices.
By 2080, according to the report, it is likely that 1.1 to 3.2 billion people worldwide will experience water scarcity, 200 to 600 million will be threatened by hunger, and each year an additional two to seven million will be victims of coastal flooding.
The brunt of these problems will fall squarely on to the world's poorest inhabitants, who are least to blame for the fossil-fuel pollution that drives global warming.
According to a final draft of the 1,400-page report, hundreds of millions of people living in more than three dozen deltas - including the Nile in Egypt, the Red River in Vietnam and the Ganges-Brahmaputra in Bangladesh - are likely to find themselves wedged between rising sea levels and more frequent flooding. Tropical diseases are likely to spread as well.
The impact will be all the more devastating, because most of these countries lack the money and skills to adapt to the threat.
In contrast, if global temperatures rise no more than 2°C compared to 1990s levels, northern Europe and North America may actually enjoy higher crop yields, milder winters and expanding forests.
The report by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will be unveiled on Friday after its members have approved a roughly 50-page summary for policymakers.
It assesses the past and future impact of rising temperatures on the planet's physical and eco-systems and inhabitants. It also evaluates the capacity to adapt to the predicted changes.
In February, the IPCC issued a first volume of its review with an assessment of the scientific evidence for global warming. It predicted temperatures would probably rise by an average of between 1.8 and 4.0°C by century's end. A final volume, due to be released in early May, will discuss how warming can be mitigated.
Besides the impact on human society, climate change will also have far-reaching consequences for the planet's biodiversity, the Brussels report will say.
It predicts that 20 to 30 per cent of species will be threatened with extinction if temperatures rise 1.5 to 2.5°C, on the lower side of end-of-century forecasts. If temperatures rise by 4°C, "few ecosystems will be able to adapt," says the report
Compiled to help governments make decisions, the report will probably sharpen debate on a range of global-warming issues.
"The developing countries will certainly point out the huge gap between regions, and make it known that they need help," said one delegate involved in the drafting. "This is true even if the IPCC's role is to make a diagnosis, not to address questions of financing."
Policy makers may also be divided on how much money should go to adaptation and how much toward mitigation, even if experts have made it clear that both are essential.
Climate action complacency
Despite dire warnings from the worlds top climate scientists, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.
Discussion in the political arena are so heavily influenced by industrial and commercial lobbyist that over the past decade co2 emissions have not dropped off as one might have expected.