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NO CENTURY IN history has been as transformative or as dramatic as the 20th century. Driven by war, social unrest and dramatic political gyrations, it was also a century of exponential scientific and medical advances that brought staggering benefits to the great bulk of humanity.
Advances in science and technology extended life-spans, lifted millions out of poverty and brought an unparalleled level of comfort and convenience to wide sections of society. By the end of the 20th century, even the poorest members of modern societies had the kind of life that - a century earlier - only the wealthiest could have enjoyed.
What will the 21st century be like? We are likely to see exponential growth in science and a continued expansion of its benefits to more and more people on the planet. But we are also facing a number of constraints to growth. This is not unexpected: as a species, we may have unlimited appetites but we live in a limited world. While our potential may be as boundless as our imagination, our planet does have boundaries - and we're starting to bump up against them.
Over the next 20 years, according to a growing clutch of experts, we are likely to strike several bottlenecks. These will be partly triggered by population growth and partly by increased wealth: as people become wealthier, they want more cars, more meat and things such as air conditioning and plasma televisions.
This means we'll need more energy, more food, more water - and demand a bigger environmental footprint per person. These simultaneous peaks of energy consumption and population will come at a time when climate change - partly triggered by this success - is expected to have very negative impacts on society.
But the next 20 years are also likely to see great scientific and technological breakthroughs that could produce solutions to these problems, and which may fundamentally drive the future of humanity into the next century - from nanotechnology and biotechnology to computing, communications and energy.
This collision of tipping points is likely to be a milestone in the history of human civilisation. How we navigate the shoals ahead, what investments we make in science and what technologies we utilise may well determine the future for centuries, ensuring human civilisation not only survives, but thrives.
Here are visions of the future, from leading thinkers in their fields. Stay tuned as we add more over the coming days.
A REAL TURN ON
by Barry Brook
The time has come for society to face the true cost of our energy consumption. Should nuclear be leading the way in 20 years?
CITIES UNDER PRESSURE
by Xuemei Bai
Our understanding of cities as complex systems is in its infancy. It will take foresight, collaboration and careful planning to ensure they can take the stress and endure the unexpected over the next 20 years.
BLUEPRINTS FOR CHANGE
by Jeffery Sachs
We are at a watershed moment in history and require reform of government, economies and an entirely new way of thinking to solve the multitude of global challenges facing us.
PROMISE OF REGENERATION
by Alan Trounson and Don Gibbons
Regenerative therapies such as stem cells have the potential to change the face of medicine over the next 20 years.
HEAVEN … OR HELL?
by David Jeffery
Transport in 2030 will be either a nirvana of coordinated technologies serving a common goal - or a nightmarish hyper-extension of today's traffic chaos. There's no room in between.
SMART EVERYTHING
by David Skellern
By 2030 telecommunications will only occasionally, and curiously, exist in the form that we know it today.
EIGHT BILLION MOUTHS
by Dir David King
World population will surpass eight billion by 2030, and demand for food will grow 50% – how will we cope?
A MILLION DEATHS A YEAR
By 2030, climate change will indirectly cause nearly one million deaths a year and inflict US$157 billion in damage
Dawn Of New Thinking
It will start to dawn on humanity that: equator of self-contradiction (Oneness of pair), is the Absolute Logic of self-creation and Unity unit of All in all (Cosmos). - Aiya-Oba (Philosopher).
one book you forgot to list
"Man's Place in Nature" by Teilhard de Chardin (1956) observed from the archaeological record how natural organisms grow to disperse through an ecosystem and then increase in population density until the ecologic/economic pressures necessitate (select) spontaneous meta-structures so as to more efficiently use the dwindling energy resources. This increasingly complex bio-organization continues until a spontaneous emergence of a new composite-but-unified energy-efficient bio-organism, a new 'creature' with an emergent and distinctly singular identity.
Mans Place in Nature
In other words humanity will be replaced by another species. Our species days are numbered.