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News

Ancient runaway warming still a mystery

Tuesday, 14 July 2009
Agençe France-Presse
Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum was an extreme warm period in Earth's history about 55 million years ago. On geological scales, the onset was extremely rapid.

Credit: University of Hawaii at Manoa

PARIS: A runaway spurt of global warming 55 million years ago turned Earth into a hothouse - but how this happened remains worryingly unclear.

Previous research into this period, called the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, or PETM, estimates the planet's surface temperature blasted upwards by between 5 and 9 degrees Celsius in just a few thousand years.
The Arctic Ocean warmed to 23 degrees C, or about the temperature of a lukewarm bath.

How PETM happened is unclear but climatologists are eager to find out, as this could shed light on aspects of global warming today.

What seems clear is that a huge amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gases - natural, as opposed to man-made - were disgorged in a very short time.

The theorised sources include volcanic activity and the sudden release of methane hydrates in the ocean.
A trio of Earth scientists, led by Richard Zeebe of the University of Hawaii, try to account for the carbon that was spewed out during PETM.

They believe that levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) rose by 70 per cent during PETM's main phase to reach 1,700 parts per million (ppm), attaining a concentration of between four and five times that of today.

But all this CO2 can only account for between 1 and 3.5 degrees C of PETM's warming if the models for climate sensitivity are right, the team found. There must have been some other factor that stoked temperatures higher.

Even though there are big differences between Earth's geology and ice cover then and now, the findings are relevant as they highlight the risk of hidden mechanisms that add dramatically to warming, says the paper.
Some of these so-called "positive feedbacks" are already known.

For instance, when a patch of Arctic sea ice melts, this exposes the uncovered sea to sunlight, depriving it of a bright, reflective layer. That causes the sea to warm, which leads to the loss of more ice, which in turn helps the sea to warm, and so on.

But these 'feedbacks' are poorly understood and some scientists believe there could be others still to be identified.

"Our results imply a fundamental gap in our understanding about the amplitude of global warming associated with large and abrupt climate perturbations," warns Zeebe's team. "This gap needs to be filled to confidently predict future climate change."

After the big warm-up, the planet eventually cooled around 100,000 years later, but not before there had been a mass extinction, paving the way to the biodiversity that is familiar to us today.

Human-induced global warming - driven mainly by the burning of oil, gas and coal - has amounted to around 0.8 degrees C over the past century.

Last week in L'Aquila, Italy, the Group of Eight industrialised countries and other economies that together account for 80 percent of greenhouse-gas emissions pledged to try to limit overall warming to 2 degrees C over pre-industrial times.

Readers' comments

How do they know?

How do scientists know that the World climate warmed "in a runaway spurt of global warming" 55 million years ago? What science or technology allows the scientists to determine this? Like Bill Bryson wrote in 'A short history of nearly everything' - "Yes, but how do they know?"
Can some kind scientist explain the technology, please?
Evan Holt

I’m not a scientist, but

I’m not a scientist, but after a two-second search on Google I managed to find that past temperatures can be gauged from samples of Antarctic ice by “analysing the presence of different types, or isotopes, of hydrogen atom that are found preferentially in precipitating water (snow) when temperatures are relatively warm”.

You can read more about it here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5314592.stm

Oooooh Climate Change

So CO2 is not solely responsible for warming? Woo hoo, lets go burn some coal!!!