Copenhagen is where the next round of negotiations will happen in December. What will it amount to?
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Nor has anyone broached the explosive problems of what teeth to build into the treaty for non-compliance, and how to punish Australia, Canada, Japan and other countries that are likely to overshoot their 2012 emissions targets under Kyoto.
Michael Zammit Cutajar, in charge of one of the two big negotiation groups, said he was unfazed that his draft text had ballooned, arguing breakthroughs traditionally come in the very final days or hours of haggling. "This is like the evolutionary process in reverse. The Big Bang comes at the end," he quipped.
If past experience of climate negotiations is any guide, a breakthrough depends on movement at the very top.
Giant economies
There are some good opportunities to provide this before Copenhagen, with the G8 summit in Italy in July, which will also be attended by the heads of emerging giant economies, followed by an expected UN climate summit in September in New York.
Rumours abound, too, of preparations for accommodating President Barack Obama in Copenhagen, although whether this is in the role of deal-maker or deal-blesser is unclear.
And past experience of climate negotiations also says that breakthroughs never dot 'i's or cross 't's.
The Kyoto Protocol, for instance, was born as a framework agreement in 1997 after exhausting talks.
But another four years were needed to complete its rulebook. Then footdragging by Russia over ratification meant the treaty eventually took effect in February 2005.
Major worry
Karstensen and others said a likely scenario at Copenhagen would be a deal on core issues, followed by further negotiations to fill in the details.
Slippage from the Bali Road Map deadline would be acceptable, provided the core deal was strong and the follow-on talks wrapped up quickly, said Karstensen.
One major worry, though, is a gap between the end of 2012 and when the treaty would take effect, which could wreck the carbon markets created under Kyoto. "A full and ratifiable treaty would have to emerge by the end of 2010. Later than that, I don't see it working," said Karstensen.
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