Feeling hot: Southeast Australia is in the grip of a record breaking drought, and now a heatwave too.
Credit: iStockphoto
"The ramifications of drought for [south east Australia] are dire, with acute water shortages for rural and metropolitan areas, record agricultural losses, the drying-out of two of Australia's major river systems and far-reaching ecosystem damage," Ummenhofer said.
To help mitigate the problem, Ummenhofer suggested the IOD movements could be predicted for the next three to six months, which could help improve seasonal rainfall forecasts and benefit the management of water resources.
"But, the Indian Ocean Dipole starts appearing around May and peaks during the September to November season, so it's a bit too early to be able to predict anything yet," she said. "In a few months it'll be more certain. We'll be able to predict movements closer to the event."
Greg Skilbeck, an earth scientist at the University of Technology, Sydney, says the findings are not totally unexpected but the attempt to predict the IOD movements are a little far fetched.
"The 'six month' or so predictability is not really predictability at all," he said. "This is just a time lag between the measurement of the relevant indices and the time it takes to manifest in Australia."
"So are we any closer to understanding and therefore really predicting when extended droughts occur? Maybe, but how much closer is not clear."
EL NINO OR NOT EL NINO, THATS NOT THE QUESTION.
The REAL QUESTION is not in finding the cause but in finding a way to "live with" our anwsers. Whats the point in always knowing how "this" works or exactly what causes "that" when we don't seem to change the way we live to suit.
A Drought is a Drought is a Drought.
El Nino, La Nina or night-time fan fairies, we do not build our lives, communities, cities or our future around the answers we find. We live on the driest continent on Earth. With the knowledge we have we know we will get less continual rain patterns but more selective storms/downpours and the Governments answer the problem with rain tanks, bigger dams and water restrictions instead of recycling. My water carrier is aiming for 12% in the distant future( up from 7%)of recycled water when we know it is possible for most of the water we use to be recycled ( at least 85%).
We know that Global Warming/Climate change (man made or natural cycle of planet) is real. Something is happening and it's been changing noticably since late 70's. We all know of the little things that we can do to help the planet and enviroment one-way or another then you find it all blown out the window in the course of our days at work. Depending on the industy you work in. (I'm a trades assistant in an engineering and machining shop that works in connection with the mining and coal producing companies. Don't get me wrong, this is a good company and full of good blokes but couldn't this still be a good company with the same good blokes if it was engineering and machining shop for solar,wind etc companies).
We spend most of our awake life at work, where really we can't make that big a difference. And we all know that it is because of business that the world turns. wouldn't it be nice if the world continued to turn because of the people,s needs rather than businesses wants.
I don't know how hard it it would be to change our path towards a better future but i know it is worth giving it a go. If we as a people already know the problems we have and some of the one's we face then half of our battle is won.
It only takes 200 members to start a new political party.
We all know what future is available just through reading COSMOS, but with the current political parties can you ever see your kids living in it. We have problems with Health, Policing, Education, Jobs, Families, all of which relate to the people/communities, as well as Water and the Climate. And if these don't relate to the people then i don't know what does. Lets talk more on answers and show the people a future worth making. Our answers will show where the jobs of the future will be.
Craig.
Drought
I don't believe you
drought
Its GLOBAL WARMING
Drought
Thats very interesting