Credit: Wikipedia/CIA World Factbook
WASHINGTON, DC: There could briefly be no ice at the North Pole in this current summer season, an event that would mark a new stage in the melting of the Arctic ice sheets due to global warming.
"We could have no ice at the North Pole at the end of this summer," said Mark Serreze, a scientist with the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Boulder, Colorado. "And the reason here is that the North Pole area right now is covered with very thin ice and this ice we call first-year ice, the ice that tends to melt out in the summer."
50/50 chance
If the ice, albeit briefly, were to break up completely this summer it would be the first time this had happened in human history. Serreze put the chances of this occurring at 50 per cent - if it does happen, in September "it's possible" that ships could sail from Alaska right to the North Pole, he said.
Last summer, melting ice allowed ships through the Arctic's Northern Passage linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans for longer than ever before.
Serreze pointed out that even if there were no ice left at the North Pole, there would be ice in other parts of the Arctic Ocean this summer. But he recognized the symbolism of an ice-free North Pole in the minds of the public, and said it was yet another indication of the environmental changes taking place because of global warming.
"There should be ice at the North Pole, and there might not be at the end of the summer and that is telling that something is wrong," he said. "Clearly if you look over what we have seen in the past three years and where we were headed, we are in ... this long-term decline and we may have no ice at all in the Arctic Ocean in summer by 2030 or so," he said.
He recalled that a few years ago, such a scenario was not expected to happen until between 2050 and 2100. Personally, he said that five years ago, he would not have imagined the situation occurring now.
Record breaking
In last year's Arctic summer, the surface of the ice sheet in mid-September was the "the least sea ice that we have ever seen in satellite record, probably the least in a century," Serreze noted. The sheet melted by 23 per cent, breaking the previous record from 2005.
Arctic ice begins to melt in about mid-June and reaches its thinnest level around mid-September, before beginning to freeze over again and reaching a maximum around mid-March. Cutting greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the rate of global warming should slow down the effect of such melting but to reverse the trend will take a long time.
On the upside, the melting of the Arctic ice sheet could help ships by providing an alternative route around the world to the Panama Canal, while it has also made accessible areas rich in natural resources, experts say.
North Pole MAY have no ice this summer
Scientists who use the words "may", "could be", "up to" and "as much as" in serious scientific papers should be sent off for retraining to use only definitive terminology - not scare tactics to get their paper into the headlines.
Evan Holt
Nothing is for sure unless
Nothing is for sure unless it happens. His may, could or maybe is justified in this case, because it will be the first time in human history
Santa
He's well fu**ed i would imagine, all the little helpers bobbing along.
Santa?
How odd, I would have thought this site would have encouraged intellectual comment by people with something to offer. Clearly not the case.
North Pole may have no ice this summer
Most people who read this magazine must have an interest in science and who wouldn't be alarmed at the indisputable fact that right now the Arctic ice sheet is degrading at an unprecendented rate in recorded history, not to mention the Antarctic ice sheets and all the world's glaciers. Maybe this is a natural cycle that occurs every now and again, but what if this is a totally new phase a begining of a chain reaction that will drastically change the world's weather patterns in the near future for thousands if not millions of years to come. This article is helping to put the focus on a very serious issue that will affect all mankind, and all life on this planet, and not only those people who live near sea level. If the North Atlantic ocean keeps receiving vast amounts of fresh water run off from the Arctic and Greenland ice sheets thus decreasing salinity then the worldwide ocean current could be interrupted or more probably stopped. One global effect is that without the warm water brought north by this current temperatures would plunge in North Western Europe, especially the U.K, plus Eastern North America making vast areas inhospitable to human occupation. Most people on this planet if we like it or not will need to make some type of personal sacrifice eg. radical lifestyle change to help save the Earth. To ignore this is at our own peril.
North Pole ice free?
It may be ice free but according to a photo from another list, three USN subs popped up in an open spot over the North Pole on the same day in 1987. So it would hardly be the first time it's been ice free. From the photo, it would have been tough if not impossible sailing for a surface ship.
Besides the climate change implications, one has to wonder how many shipping lines will build ships to sail through a region that might be ice free for a few weeks a year. Also the NE passage over Russia is already open and there's been no stampede to use it.
north pole ice melt
Evan Holt the scientists don't know, but thats notthe core of our dilemma. Our political system seems to demand 100 per cent proof of climate change before it acts. We are the political system, the voters, what do we get....not a lot of real action, and when it comes it is too slow. Maybe we could get "pissed off" like the French do every now and again to show their displeasure of govt policies with a show of voters strength on the streets. Our need to change our political systems globally and stop looking at the economics of climate change but get the understanding that without a stable inhabitable climate money is totally worthless anyway. We really need to listen to the "don't knows" and start acting positively in climate damage limitation. Evan in the meantime you start thinking "what if", hope you don't scare easily! Peter Vasse