Carbon emissions are growing more rapidly than even the worst-case scenario used by the IPCC, suggesting global temperatures will soar by the end of the century

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SYDNEY: Global carbon dioxide emissions are growing more rapidly than even the worst-case scenario used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a new study shows.

Researchers from CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, a specialist division of Australia's national science agency, the CSIRO, found that the growth in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions accelerated suddenly after 2000, from an average of 1.1 per cent per year in the 1990s, to 3.3 per cent per year between 2000 and 2004.

"Emissions are worsening substantially faster than even the more aggressive predictions," said Mike Raupach who led the study, published today in the U.S. journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Widespread upheaval

The study suggests that global temperatures will soar more than four degrees Celsius by the end of the century. The environmental costs of such a temperature rise would include melting of vast areas of permafrost at the poles, drought conditions in mid latitude regions, including Australia, and widespread ecological upheaval.

But there would also be massive economic, ethical and social problems, according to Raupach. "The environment is truly global – emissions and consequences are shared, it's not possible for anyone to walk away from the problem."

Increased 'carbon intensity'

The study also revealed that since 2000 there has been an increase in the 'carbon intensity' of the world economy – the amount of carbon burned per dollar of wealth created.

This has been caused by the rise of major developing economies, particularly China, and by the leveling-off of energy efficiency (carbon burned per unit of energy produced) in developed world countries like Australia and the U.S.

According to Raupach, reducing this carbon intensity is vital if we are to cut emissions while maintaining economic growth, both in Australia and on a global scale. "This plateau suggests that we have reached the limit of the 'easy' options," Raupach explains. "The next round will require significant changes in the technology we use."

While China has the highest growth rate in carbon emissions, it accounts for less than 20 per cent of the global total. By comparison the U.S. contributes about 25 per cent of the global total, which means that the carbon emissions of the average American are 4.5 those of the average person in China.

Australia looks even worse; the average Australian is responsible for the same carbon emissions as 65 people in China.

"This study quite frankly scares those of us who had hoped that the IPCC were wrong," said Andy Pittman, an environmental scientist from the University of New South Wales in Sydney, who was not involved in the study. "Humans are showing no capacity to decelerate emissions … [there is a] serious global 'action gap' – the gulf between declarations of intent to reduce emissions, and the concrete steps needed to achieve the targets."

Graeme Pearman of the Monash Sustainability Institute, Victoria, agrees. "'These things take time' is a response we get from some of our leaders, yet the reality is that [the] atmosphere does not wait."

But there is hope, according to Raupach. "The good news for Australia is that the cost will have little impact – we can do it for a fraction of the growth in GDP. We could think of it as a social initiative, investing in our environmental future, as we do in health or education."