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What will the transport system look like in a major metropolitan city in the developed world in 2030? There are two scenarios: one optimistic and based on a sustainable transport system with shared zero-emission vehicles, better vehicle safety and satellite-based guidance and information.
The other is a frustrating world of chronic congestion, information systems that are autonomous and uncoordinated, degraded urban environments, rapidly rising travel costs, reduced accessibility and increased social exclusion.
The optimistic vision will take long-term planning and coordination, and may become reality only in more enlightened cities. The nightmare scenario is the likely consequence of ignoring or sidestepping the challenges that all modern cities face and if left unattended could damage economies and liveability. There's really not much room in between.
So let's try and imagine these two scenarios by looking at a citizen of 2030, who takes a journey between two cities in two different futures.
Laura got up early. She had to drive from her home in the new town of Breslac on the outskirts of London, to Brussels for an important presentation to potential clients.
Breslac was developed by planners to be a sustainable community - its name was formed from the first letters of seven words: business, residential, education, shopping, leisure and commercial. All of these facets of the town are co-located so that they are within easy reach and the need for travel is minimised.
Most of Laura's meetings outside of Breslac are done by videoconferencing, or she travels by train. Cheap flights are a thing of the past: they now include the full environmental cost and are used only for intercontinental journeys or by the very rich. Today she needs to demonstrate a new prototype 3-D body scanner too bulky to carry on public transport, so she and her colleague André have opted to drive to Brussels.
She has booked a cyber-car belonging to one of the car-share clubs that everyone in Breslac uses. These are made up of pedestrian-friendly cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells. Unlike a battery, a fuel cell doesn't run down or need recharging, so there's no down time and no pollution.
Her route and expected journey time were automatically planned when she booked and a parking place in Brussels was reserved as she paid for the trip on her smartphone.
At breakfast, her smartphone alerts her she'll now need to leave five minutes earlier to make her schedule. There are delays on the route caused by a truck shedding its load and a diversion has been planned for her, adding time to the journey.
Laura's cyber-car is waiting outside, having driven itself from a garage to her house and - warned of the earlier start - it's already in standby mode. She notes the car's been freshly cleaned and is the latest model. It contains a new mood-adaptive media system that automatically senses her mood and creates the appropriate in-car environment of music, lighting and scents.
Her smartphone pairs wirelessly with the car, confirms her credentials and the doors pop open. The doors close and the car sets off, driving automatically using the satellite navigation system.
André is waiting for her outside the office when the cyber-car arrives; it pops open the doors, he enters and Laura tells the car to proceed. When it reaches the ring road on the outskirts of Breslac, it pulls over and asks her to take over.
Cyber cars have sensors that detect and follow vehicles and keep a safe distance, but in outside areas equipped for cyber cars the infrastructure may not be of sufficient quality to prevent errors occurring. The law stipulates that a human must take control until the car joins a road-train at one of the designated hubs on the motorway network.
