Future cities will face decreasing access to resources and will depend on the ability to respond to surprises, such as natural disasters.
Credit: Jamie Tufrey/COSMOS
At a recent conference I posed this question to a group of esteemed urban scholars: what would our cities look like in 2030? Instantly people answered that most of the things we would be doing in 2030 we are already doing now.
That wasn't very promising, so I also asked my six-year-old son what he thought cities might look like when he is 26 years old. He thought about it for about five seconds, and then said with sparkles in his eyes, "I think there will be roads in the sky, and we will be driving our cars in the air." He quickly added that we will have a better alternative to a solar car, one that is both good for the environment and allows us to travel at night or on a rainy day.
The opposite of the urban scholars' vision, this optimistic picture reveals his unpolluted trust in science, technology and humanity.
The reality is that our future cites will be of our own making, and will depend largely on three things.
First, it will depend on some of the major trends and challenges facing cities, such as increasing urbanisation and decreasing access to resources. Of course, this really means that it depends on what we do to address these issues - and how we do it.
Second, it will depend on what kind of surprises await us down the road, such as natural disasters.
And finally it will depend on how cities - and by this I mean the complex and cascading process of decision making and implementing - respond to these surprises. And whether we can predict these responses.
In 2008, humanity passed the point where more than 50% of our population, or 3.3 billion people, lived in cities.
Especially in developing continents, such as Asia and Africa, more and more people are migrating to cities, usually driven by the aspiration for a better life. Many cities are growing rapidly and new cities are being built to accommodate urban dwellers. The scale of constructions underway in some of these places, such as coastal cities in China, is simply overwhelming.
The United Nations estimates that between 2005 to 2030 cities will need to provide housing, water, energy, sanitation services, transportation, jobs and education to about 1.8 billion additional residents. This task will need to be fulfilled in an increasingly 'unfriendly' global environment, where resources such as raw materials, food, water, energy and land are becoming less readily available. And just around the corner are additional challenges, such as the need to significantly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and prepare for adverse impacts of climate change.
By 2030, even more so than today, cities will be the battleground for sustainability.
To handle these tasks and navigate themselves well, cities will certainly need to be smart and innovative, in terms of how they are planned and managed. For most cities, this means adopting a drastically different approach in their practices.
Fortunately, being smart and innovative doesn't mean every city has to reinvent the wheel. In a sense, I agree with the view that many of the things we will be doing are already here. For example, we already know that putting rainwater tanks on buildings may solve water shortage problems in many cities, and introducing a public transportation system can significantly reduce congestion, energy use and GHG emissions.
Some front-runners have already set good examples. The city of Rizhao, China, has succeeded in having solar water heating adopted in 99% of households in urban districts. Curitiba, Brazil, has a number of innovative sustainability practices, including a public transportation system called Bus Rapid Transit, which gives priority to buses over private cars. Portland, Oregon, in the U.S. has pioneered a smart growth strategy that has increased inner city density and reduced urban sprawl.
Are Cities Actually Needed?
Are cities, particularly large cities, the best way to organize human activities? I say no. The original purpose, to allow people to communicate with each other, no longer obtains.
In 100 years, half the world's largest cities will be flooded by rising ocean levels due to global warming. [The land area inundated is negligible compared to the area in Canada and Siberia that will experience temperate weather!]
In 100 years, it is almost inevitable that terrorists will be able to detonate atomic bombs in the harbors of these cities, inflicting casualties in the hundreds of millions.
Cities regenerate in less than 100 years; a program of dispersion, started in the next decade, will have minimal economic effect.
The area of the earth's surface is 120 billion acres. Enough solar energy falls on each acre to potentially support one human being. A family of four, assigned 4 acres, whose dwelling would occupy just 2.5% of this area, should be able to be self-sufficient in both food and energy. If you include the ocean area, the earth should be able to support 122 billion people, and without the need for cities.
Future city
This article touches on many of the matters that I am being challenged with in the exhibition development for Imagine 2113. Thanks Xuemei