Credit: NASA
Why should we go into space? What is that justification for spending all that effort and money on getting a few lumps of Moon rock? Aren't there better causes here on Earth?
In a way, the situation was like that in Europe before 1492. People might well have argued that it was a waste of money to send Columbus on a wild goose chase over an almost unimaginable distance. Yet, the discovery of the New World made a profound difference to the old one.
Spreading out into space will have an even greater effect; it will completely change the future of the human race and maybe determine whether we have any future at all.
It won't solve many of our immediate problems on Earth, but it will give us a new perspective on them and cause us to look both outwards and inwards. With luck it could unite us to face a common challenge.
This would be a long-term strategy – and by long term, I mean hundreds or even thousands of years. We could have a base on the Moon within 30 years, reach Mars within 50 years even the moons of the outer planets within 200 years.
By 'reach', I mean with manned space flight. We've already driven rover and landed a probe on Titan, a moon of Saturn, but if one is considering the future of the human race, we have to go there ourselves.
Going into space won't be cheap, certainly, but it will take only a small proportion of world resources. NASA's budget has remained roughly constant in real terms since the time of the Apollo landings, but it has decreased from 0.3 per cent of U.S. GDP in 1970 to 0.12 per cent today.
Even if we were to increase the amount spent on space endeavours internationally by 20 times, to make a serious effort to send people into space, it would only be a small fraction of world GDP.
There will be those who argue that it would be better to spend our money solving the problems of this planet, like climate change and pollution, rather than wasting it on a possibly fruitless search for a new planet. I am not denying the importance of fighting climate change and global warming, but we can do that and still spare a quarter of a per cent of world GDP for space. Isn't our future worth a quarter of percent?
We thought space was worth a big effort in the '60s. In 1962, President Kennedy committed the U.S. to landing a man on the Moon by the end of the decade. This was achieved just in time by the Apollo 11 mission in 1969.
The space race helped to create a fascination with science and led to great advances in technology, including the first large-scale integrated circuits which are the basis of all modern computers.
However, after the last Moon landing in 1972, with no future plans for further manned space flight, public interest in space waned. This went along with a fall in enthusiasm for science in the West because, although it had brought great benefits, it had not solved the social problems that increasingly occupied public attention.
A new manned spaceflight program would do a lot to restore public enthusiasm for space and for science generally.
Robotic missions are much cheaper and may provide more scientific information, but they don't catch the public imagination in the same way, and they don't spread the human race into space, which I argue should be our long-term strategy.
A goal of a base on the Moon by 2020 and of a man landing on Mars by 2025 would reignite a space program and give it a sense of purpose in the same way that President Kennedy's Moon target did in the 1960s.
A new interest in space would also increase the public standing of science generally. The low esteem in which science and scientists are held is having serious consequences. We live in a society that is increasingly governed by science and technology, yet fewer and fewer young people long to go into science.
obama
who won the debate?
Space Exploration
The future of mankind boils down to one simple necessity. Redundancy. If we, as a species do not make our species redundant and separate from planet earth, then we are doomed. The level of our technology with be of little consequence if we faced with a cosmic disaster. The are dangers lurking in the universe that would require our species to be far removed from this planet and possibly even our solar system. Yes we are mere infants when it comes to space exploration, and yes it is expensive indeed. I don't believe we can begin to imagine the riches that will return to earth in the future. There is thinking big and then there is thinking really big. We must think really big.
If you think the human race
If you think the human race could possibly sustain itself on earth,for the next million years you are terribly mistaken.we have had two world wars and with the presence of weapons of mass destruction,the environmental changes etc the probability of humanity living out the next million years are less than zero.In this scenario thinking about survival and interspace travel is really wise.Think about it so much has changed in the past 10,000 years.Compare it to a million years,so many permutations and combinations in the course of many years we are assured to wipe ourselves out, the earth might become inhabitable in as short as a 100 years.Hence, it is necessary when we think of the long term to explore space and establish new bases where the human race could sustain itself
Since the universe is infinite?
Even if the probability of life spontaneously appearing on a suitable planet is very small, since the universe is infinite, life most likely would have appeared somewhere else too.
Eh? since when has Hawkins or anyone else remotely respectable claimed that the universe is infinite? What happened to the Big Bang and prior to that there was no spacetime?
ah!
stargazing is fun! getting paid for stargazing with the most expensive equipment may be even more fun :P
well! please don't claim to help humanity 500 yrs later when you can't help it today. today is what we live in. why the hell would even the most sane(or insane) person alive today care about what's gonna happen 500 yrs later?
anyway, as somebody said, the strongest evidence that there is intelligent life elsewhere in the universe, is that they have not bothered to get in touch with us. but it appears we're not proving to be equally intelligent either-way (a)there are intelligent beings (b) there's nothing out there! :-/
Open resource
It is true that we are bogged down by our own economy. Profit-oriented entities do not invest where they don't see immediate or middle-term profit (within their lifetime).
There are few billionaries that are investing in spacefaring programs (the private space flight companies) and such. However, I believe we can go beyond that.
Let's look at the tremendous success of Internet and recent Open Source initiative. It has resulted in the massive knowledge pool and collaboration, our IT is advancing rapidly, while we still struggle on other fields.
I believe that we could kick-start the spacefaring program if we tried Open Resourcing... basically scientists, engineers and other folks could provide their valuable time and experience to the project, collaborating and developing a plan. Work hours shouldn't be a problem, as there are millions of people around the world that want to partake in such a project and have so far been rejected by the elite (NASA etc.). Resources, materials etc. would be donated to the project. Millions of people could collect cans and turn them in, the amount of aluminium could be traded in for more exotic materials, needed for the project.
The 'Good Will Campaign'. We really want to reach out to the stars... why don't we do it ourselves? Our governments don't really want to, nor do profit-oriented companies.
Our world has been built mainly on volunteer-built infrastructure. Pioneers left their homes to venture into the wilderness and settle down. They built roads and infrastructure with their own resources. Only when they saw the profit, did the major companies move in.
If we want to get out soon, we need to collaborate ourselves.
Surprising ignorance
"I am discounting reports of UFOs, of course – my main reason for this being, why would they appear only to cranks and weirdos?"
That's surprisingly small minded coming from Stephen Hawking. Anyone with an interest in these things, knows that these reports come from people of all walks of life and professions.
wonderful idea but...
As I'd really like to see people leaving solar system, and it has many advantages (science discoveries, exploring cosmos, maybe some social benefits), but as mentioned before not a real goal for overcrowded earth.
I'm also skeptic it'll happen soon, cause we have always bigger problem on our heads; the rich people rarely invest in these kinds of enterprises (exeptions Branson, McCormack and few others),finally I think we should look other way.
http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/robert_ballard_on_exploring_the_oceans.html
I totally bought it, that's potential human habitat and it's cheaper to explore.
He is correct
Since Apollo we have grown stagnate in the pursuit to reach beyond what we think is possible. We should already be established on the moon, and venturing to mars. Instead we squabble over oil, politics, greed, and racisms. Thus slipping further away within ourselves oblivious to what lies beyond our “Pale Blue Dot”. I’m not saying space is the end all fix all for many of our problems, but just thinks what kind of technology we could have already created if, we kept pushing the bar in the early 70’s. I was born in the early 80’s and only read about the Apollo mission in class. Our teachers always promised us that the next stage of manned space flight and colonization remained right over the next hill. Instead we watch NASA work with the limited budget it’s given, working with obsolete space craft, and people are surprised when things fail. Proffesor Hawking is correct in his full analysis of our situation. The only thing I might add, would be that if there is a intelligent race of extraterrestrials out there, why would they bother wasting there time on a planet of violent humans, that seem intent on killing each other over little more than greed, religion, and race? At some point we need to all wake up and realize that we are all the same “Race” the Human Race.
Why do morons comment?
To the person who commented last. You have the I.Q. of a trout. Congratulations on learning how to use the interweb machine, but it's time to learn teh engrish.... kthx bai.