After U.N. scientists delivered their most urgent warning ever on climate change, the burden now falls on the world's political chiefs to craft a master plan to combat the threat.

Some 190 governments have been called to an eleven-day conference in Bali, Indonesia, this week, under the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

If all goes well, the meeting will climax with a blueprint for two years of negotiations leading to a new pact for addressing global warming. Under this pact industrialised countries will be pressed to massively reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases from the end of 2012.

Negotiations on a grand scale

China, India and Brazil will be lobbied to crank up action against their own, surging pollution levels. Countries in the frontline of climate change will be clamouring for funds to help them cope with its impacts.

Negotiations would ideally have to conclude in Copenhagen at the end of 2009, giving countries sufficient time to ratify the treaty so that it dovetails with the end of commitments under the Kyoto Protocol.

Nothing has ever been attempted on such a grand scale in the history of environmental policy and even diplomacy itself, say delegates girding themselves for the Bali marathon.

"If you look at what the Bali negotiating roadmap is all about, it's less to do with the environment and more to do with reshaping the world's economy over the next few decades," said one European diplomat.

Just as climate change is starting to spread its tentacles into almost every corner of political, economic and social life, so are the proposed solutions.

Energy efficiency

Investing in energy efficiency, renewable sources and clean transport, curbing emissions from dirty industries, preserving forests, climate-proofing cities, promoting a carbon-neutral lifestyle – it all amounts to a bill of trillions of dollars.

Inaction, though, is likely to cost many times more.Reflecting this extraordinary scope, Indonesia has invited trade ministers to Bali on December 8 to 9 and finance ministers on December 10 to 11. The conference concludes with a December 12 to 14 meeting of environment ministers under the UNFCCC.

Three players – the European Union (EU), the United States and the big emerging countries – are likely to dominate at Bali.

The EU wants the world to halve annual global emissions by 2050 compared with 1990 levels, to limit warming to two degrees over pre-industrial times. It has pledged to cut its own emissions by 20 per cent by 2020 compared to this benchmark and deepen this to 30 per cent if other parties do the same.

Weak position

"Time is rapidly running out to prevent climate change from reaching dangerous levels that could change the face of our planet and devastate our economies in the coming decades," EU environment commissioner Stavros Dimas said as he reiterated the offer last week.

The United States finds itself in its weakest position ever in any climate forum and, sources predict, is unlikely to try any blocking tactics.

President George W. Bush has met with polite nods but little enthusiasm in his campaign to focus efforts on voluntary measures and smart technology to reduce emissions rather than on tough, mandatory curbs.

And he has lost his only ally in the form of Australian Prime Minister John Howard, who was voted out of office last week. Under Howard, Australia was the only advanced economy alongside the United States to refuse to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

Tipping point

His successor, Kevin Rudd, has vowed to push ahead with ratification and is flying to Bali this week.

Howard and Bush say Kyoto in its present form is fatally flawed, as it requires only industrialised parties – but not big developing countries, the major polluters of tomorrow – to meet binding curbs on their emissions.
Developing countries, though, are loath to tie themselves to commitments that could imperil their rise out of poverty. They argue that industrialised countries are historically to blame for today's warming and should make the first move.

Ahead of the Bali meeting, the Nobel-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that damage to Earth's weather systems this century would doom poor countries to worse hunger, water stress and damage from violent storms. Nearly a third of plant and animal species could be wiped out.

Last week, the U.N. Development Programme (UNDP) said warming was likelier to breach 4 °C and described the fate of vulnerable countries as being at a "tipping point."

BALI POKER

Here's a summary of how the main players stand:

UNITED STATES

Profile: World's most prolific burner of fossil fuels, accounting by itself for nearly a quarter of global greenhouse-gas pollution (although by some estimates China has now eclipsed it). Rejects Kyoto Protocol as too costly for the US economy and unfair as its emissions caps do not concern emerging giants, especially China.

Strategy: Has weak hand. President George W. Bush has little credibility abroad in the climate arena and is under intensifying pressure at home. Last Saturday he lost his last anti-Kyoto ally after Australian Prime Minister John Howard was voted out of office.

Bush's voluntary approach on tackling greenhouse gases has been rejected by other countries and they will pay close interest to an "alternative" US delegation at Bali of Congressmen and VIPs who want to ditch Bush's policies after he leaves office in January 2009.

EUROPE

Profile: Kyoto's champion. The European Union saved the Protocol from oblivion after Bush's walkout in 2001. But this act of faith has not been evenly matched by progress on the ground. Several EU economies are far short of meeting their 2012 targets and Europe badly fumbled the launch of its market in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Strategy: Wants to halve global emissions by 2050 compared with 1990 levels. Has announced a unilateral cut in EU emissions of 20 percent by 2020 compared with 1990 levels, deepened to 30 percent if other industrialised countries play ball. This offer has met with a telling silence from Japan, Canada and other advanced economies, reflecting their concerns about the cost of meeting Kyoto targets.

Seeking to keep developing countries onside, the EU says it expects that only rich countries will have to make binding emissions cuts in the post-2012 commitment phase. Its two other negotiating carrots for developing countries – funds to help vulnerable economies cope with climate change and helping to transfer clean technology to them – are either weak or unclear.

DEVELOPING NATIONS

Profile: A diverse bloc ranging from the world's poorest countries to China and India, which will dominate the world's carbon problem within a matter of years.

Strategy: Resolutely opposed to being included in binding emissions targets. They argue that the historical blame for global warming lies with industrialised nations and mandatory curbs will hurt their own rise out of poverty.

On the other hand, awareness of global warming is rising fast in these countries. China is taking the lead in a national plan to monitor emissions, encourage the switch to cleaner renewables and boost public consciousness of the problem.

Developing countries look to the post-2012 Kyoto deal to do more to transfer clean technology to their economies and deliver financial support to help them cope with the impacts of climate change. As a quid pro quo, they could be coaxed into a deal that sets down measures to reduce emissions from high-polluting sectors such as coal, steel and cement.

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